Posted:September 8, 2025
Categories: Central Bank, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fiat Currency, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Inflation, US Treasuries
On August 31, 2024, legendary endurance athlete Kilian Jornet descended Mount Écrins in France, capping off an incredible 19-day journey through the French Alps. The “Project of His Life” involved linking 82 of the Alps’ 4,000-meter (13,000+ ft) summits in 19 days without the use of motorized vehicles. The final numbers are stunning. The 36-year-old endurance athlete traveled 750 miles (1,207 kilometers) on foot and by bike, gaining 246,000 feet in elevation, with a total time on foot and bike of 267 hours. He slept an average of just over 5 hours per night.1
His journey started on August 13th, three days after he won the famed Sierre-Zinal race in the Swiss Alps. The 20-mile race travels from the town of Sierre up 6,000 feet and finishes in a sprint down to the city of Zinal. Jornet finished a mere 2 seconds ahead of Kenyan Philemon Kiriago in a blistering 2 hours and 25 minutes. He achieved an impressive 7:21 minutes per mile pace, 5:06 per mile “grade-adjusted pace,” across the mountainous terrain. I recall watching this race on YouTube in amazement at his skill and strength. A few days later, he embarked on his journey through the French Alps. To accomplish this feat, he divided the sections into 16 stages. Many days, Jornet would travel 20 hours. One of his heroes, the late mountaineer Ueli Steck, held the previous Fastest Known Time (FKT) on this route, which took him 62 days to complete in 2015. Jornet finished in 19 days.
Jornet’s journey took him from the Swiss Engadin Valley, where he summited Piz Bernina. Stages two and three took him through Oberland to the brutal Valais range in stages four through nine. Stages 13 to 14 took him up the legendary Mont Blanc peak, which he has circled four times in his career, winning the legendary Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc (UTMB) 100-mile ultramarathon. In a blog post following his journey, he shared some of what it took to accomplish this feat:
“To keep moving, no matter the conditions, weather or gear I had with me, I had to push myself to the absolute limit of my knowledge and beyond to make it through. The effort was physical, technical, but above all mental, in managing stress and emotions. The most difficult part of such a journey was to stay fully concentrated for so many hours a day and to lower the stress in complicated situations, to stay lucid and make good decisions and not spend more energy.
I witnessed breathtaking sunsets, full-moon nights, and crimson sunrises. I touched magnificent rocks that made me dance with them to progress. I experienced long, magnificent hours of solitude and shared laughter and ridges with friends. In the end, it’s these moments that will remain.”2
His journey was not an overnight success. In a blog post written in August 2024, just after his Sierre Zinal victory, he described his year in training.
“When we read training posts by athletes we often focus on the details (altitude, heat training, the specificity of the high intensity sessions, the tapering, etc) but we don’t really look to the BIG part of the work, that gives the 90% of the performance (the volume, the lifestyle, the consistency during years, etc)”3
An endurance athlete's key is building “the engine” that allows them to go the distance. This involves years of consistent training. Jornet explains this training by adapting a pyramid of endurance created by Stephen Seiler.
Figure 1. Kilian Jornet’s Training Pyramid
Source: Kilian Jornet 4
Notice the amount of work involved at the pyramid's base: nutrition, stress management, and body control. Next comes the volume and consistency of training. In 2022, Jornet spent approximately 77% of his activity in “easy zones,” which correspond to Zones 1 and 2 for athletes.5 Zones 3, 4, and 5 involve much higher intensity, as seen in the higher sections of the pyramid. Consider the Sierre-Zinal race, where he spent 2.5 hours in zones 4 and 5. This is rare for Kilian and is reserved for race day. The point is that the most mundane tasks, such as a 2-hour easy training run, a specific tweak to his diet, or maximizing recovery, all add up over time. Sure, it takes a superhuman to accomplish many of the things he does. However, it also requires incredible planning, hard work, and effort to establish the massive base at the bottom of his pyramid.
Training Stress Score
I am blessed to be able to witness Kilian’s incredible athleticism in my lifetime. His extensive accomplishments include victories in ultramarathons, ski and mountaineering races, and numerous Fastest Known Times (FKTs). He is a fierce competitor, gracious champion, and proud family man. While I am not even in the stratosphere of Jornet’s endurance athletic ability, I have attempted to train similarly over the years, building a solid foundation of zone 1 and zone 2 work. It’s not surprising to those who know me that I track my training and am somewhat of a nerd when it comes to the numbers. Below is a snapshot of my Training Stress Score (TSS) from the Training Peaks app as of 9/7/2025. Every workout I log is assigned a stress score (TSS) based on duration and intensity. Figure 2 illustrates my current score.
Figure 2: Training Stress Score
Source: Training Peaks
The higher the fitness number, the better. While training for big races in the past, my fitness number was in the 90s during the peak phase of training blocks. Attempting to avoid injury, I would be very careful watching the form number, ensuring that I didn’t run this number too far negative. The goal was to maximize fitness before a race and then aim to get the “form” number as close to zero as possible during the taper period leading up to the race.
Government Stress Score
Elite athletes like Kilian Jornet work closely with their coach, monitoring their fitness, fatigue, and form as they prepare for races and projects throughout the year. Similarly, we can draw a parallel between the Training Stress Score (TSS) of elite athletes and the US Economy, or the Government Stress Score (GSS).
Consider the analogy of the US economy acting like an athlete, where:
The GSS can be represented by a single number, indicating the financial and economic stress resulting from its policies and the market environment.
Workout Intensity & Fiscal Deficit
A large fiscal deficit, where the government spends more than it receives in tax income, is akin to a high-intensity workout. This can be stimulative to the economy in the short run, but running high budget deficits year after year can be unsustainable.
Workout Duration & Interest Rates
The government bond market and interest costs are key drivers of long-term economic health and prosperity. The 10-year US Treasury bond rate is a key interest rate in the US economy, measuring the long-term borrowing costs of the US government. Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other key rates are derived from the 10-year treasury rate. The 10-year rate is akin to a long-duration workout. The longer and more grueling a workout, the more stressed the athlete is. Likewise, a higher 10-year interest rate indicates financial stress for the government.
Fitness & Government Debt to Revenue Ratio
The government debt-to-revenue ratio compares total government debt to its tax revenues. What matters most for any debtor, including central governments, is the money going out (debt service) relative to the money coming in (revenue). A high debt-to-revenue ratio means the government has conditioned itself to operate under immense financial pressure. The "fitness" is the ability not to default immediately. However, this high chronic load makes the system extremely vulnerable to short-term fatigue.
Fatigue & Debt Service Costs
Fatigue rises quickly with strenuous workouts. For a government, fatigue is akin to current revenue (tax receipts) that goes directly to pay interest, creating immediate and acute financial strain.
Form & Fiscal Surplus/Deficit
As mentioned in my training strategy, I carefully watch my “form” number, ensuring it doesn’t go too far negative. This helps me use a metric along with how my body feels. If this number is significantly negative and I am unusually sore or tired, I almost always take either a rest day or an easy workout. For the government, a large fiscal budget deficit indicates the government is "over-reaching" by spending more than it earns, inducing more fatigue.
Overall Health & Government Debt to GDP
Government debt to GDP is the athlete's fundamental health. Even if an athlete's form is good, if their overall health is poor, they are at risk. Similarly, if a government's total debt becomes too large relative to the entire economy (GDP), it signals a systemic risk, regardless of the other short-term metrics.
Global Phenomenon & Investment Implications
It’s well known that the United States is currently going through some difficult fiscal times. However, it’s also easy to be way too negative as a result. The fiscal and debt issues are global in scope. We are nearing the end of the current long-term debt cycle. Almost every advanced economy is experiencing similar issues, and yes, that includes China as well.
I remain very bullish (positive and/or optimistic) on the United States both in the short-term and long-term. After all, the US has the most extensive, open, and deep financial markets. We also possess the immense power of having the global reserve currency. If a sovereign debt crisis were to occur, expect it to originate from outside the United States first.
This global fiscal weakness and future monetary inflation are other reasons why I also remain bullish on gold, large multinational stocks, and other stores of value assets. The final chart is one I’ve shared before from Jan Nieuwenhuijs. The brown shaded area shows the percentage of gold held in reserve (savings) in global central bank balance sheets (savings accounts). As fiat currency systems experience monetary inflation (money printing), central banks have been major buyers of gold as a way to backstop sovereign balance sheets. Just as Kilian Jornet builds his fitness pyramid through his deep aerobic base and strong ligaments, gold acts to strengthen a government's balance sheet, providing the stability and confidence in its currency and financial system.
Figure 3: Central Bank Reserve Assets
Source: Money Metals 6
Kilian Tackles the United States Western Mountains
As I finish typing this article, Kilian Jornet is somewhere in the middle of Colorado scaling a 14,000-foot mountain during his current “States of Elevation” project. You can follow his current project here: https://www.nnormal.com/en_US/content/states-of-elevation
References
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